The menswear retailer is also making an aggressive bet on physical stores.

Tailored Brands, which also owns Jos. A. Bank, Moores, and K&G Fashion Superstore, sees room for hundreds of new physical stores over the next decade as it makes its latest pitch to investors.

This is a striking reversal for a company that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy during the pandemic and ultimately shuttered more than 400 stores.

The expansion comes as retailers across the U.S. continue to rethink their physical footprints and traditional department stores lose ground.

And in Tailored Brands’ view, it creates an opening for specialty retailers like them to offer services difficult to replicate online.

Men’s Wearhouse owner files for IPO

Tailored Brands publicly filed a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an initial public offering and plans to list its shares on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “MENW.”

The company has not yet determined how many shares it will offer or the expected price range.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies are serving as lead bookrunning managers for the proposed offering, according to the company.

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Tailored Brands plans to use proceeds from the offering in part to repay debt, with the remainder available for general corporate purposes, including working capital, operating expenses, and capital expenditures.

Silver Point Capital, which acquired a significant stake following Tailored Brands’ bankruptcy, is expected to remain the company’s controlling shareholder after the IPO.

But the planned listing also marks a dramatic change from where the retailer stood in 2020.

As the COVID-19 pandemic hit, many offices closed, disrupting weddings and other events.

Consequently, demand for suits and formalwear collapsed.

At the time, Tailored Brands warned it could close as many as 500 stores before finally filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in August 2020. 

The company ultimately shuttered more than 400 locations during that period.

Now, after its relatively quick exit from bankruptcy in December 2020, Tailored Brands operates more than 1,000 stores across North America and is also preparing to expand again.

Tailored Brands plans more than 500 additional stores

Tailored Brands expects to open about 20 stores in fiscal 2026 and more than 35 in fiscal 2027, before ramping up to more than 50 openings annually in the near term, according to its IPO filing.

Over the longer term, the retailer says it sees potential for more than 500 additional locations across 100-plus markets.

That plan stands out in a retail environment, where closures still exceed openings overall, even though the pace of closures is improving and openings are rising

CNBC reported that Coresight Research expects U.S. retailers to:

• Close about 7,900 stores in 2026, down 4.5% year over year.
• Open about 5,500 stores, up 4.4%.

This makes the projected store closures the lowest in three years.

More importantly, Tailored Brands believes some of that disruption could work in its favor.

In its IPO filing, the retailer pointed specifically to the retreat of department stores, which historically held a major position in suits, dress clothing, and other apparel categories.

The company, citing U.S. Census Bureau data, said the number of department stores fell by more than 40% between 2018 and 2023.

Tailored Brands argues that as department stores disappear, spending is shifting toward specialty retailers.

“We believe our focus on menswear, our high-touch service and our offering with unparalleled expert advice and fit solutions position us favorably to continue capturing share from department stores and competing effectively against e-commerce and off-price retailers,” reads the SEC filing.

Its own stores are also largely insulated from the struggles of enclosed malls.

More than 90% of Tailored Brands’ locations were outside malls at the end of fiscal 2025, and the company said its entire store fleet was profitable on a four-wall basis.

Now, the company is using customer data, trade-area demographics, results from its existing stores, and competitor information to identify markets for expansion.

Weddings and rentals remain key

Tailored Brands is also betting that stores still matter for purchases that require more service than a typical apparel transaction.

Suits and formalwear often require measurements, alterations, and styling, while weddings can bring entire groups of customers into stores for fittings and rentals.

That rental business gives Tailored Brands a particularly strong position.

The company said in its SEC filing that it is the leader in the U.S. men’s apparel rental market, capturing roughly half of the market annually since 2018 and nearly 60% more recently.

Rentals are also a high-margin part of the business. 

Tailored Brands reported rental selling margins of 85.5% in fiscal 2025.

But Tailored Brands is no longer relying solely on traditional suits.

Since its restructuring, the company has modernized its assortment, expanded its casual and flexible clothing offerings, and increased its reliance on products sold under its own brands.

Private brands accounted for roughly 88% of its assortment by the end of fiscal 2025.

Those changes are important as workplace dress codes have become more casual, and fewer consumers need traditional business suits every day.

Instead, Tailored Brands increasingly depends on a mix of weddings, celebrations, job interviews, professional events, and other occasions to bring shoppers into its stores.

That creates another challenge revealed in its IPO filing: getting those customers to come back.

Nearly 70% of Tailored Brands’ customers are classified as new or reactivated shoppers, and the company attracted roughly 6 million new and reactivated customers in fiscal 2025.

Customers averaged only 1.6 visits per year.

Tailored Brands sees converting even part of that large group into repeat shoppers as a major growth opportunity.

Tailored Brands posts higher sales ahead of IPO

The retailer is returning to Wall Street with a significantly different financial profile than when it entered bankruptcy.

Tailored Brands generated about $2.5 billion in net sales and $217 million in net income in fiscal 2025.

Its gross margin reached 48.2%, and the company said its menswear market share increased by about 70 basis points between fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2025.

The latest quarter showed continued sales growth.

Revenue increased 5.8% to $681.8 million for the three months ended May 2, compared with $644.4 million a year earlier.

Net income, however, declined to $44.9 million from $50.7 million during the same period a year earlier.

The planned IPO will therefore serve more than one purpose.

It gives Tailored Brands access to public equity markets as it prepares for a major expansion, while also allowing the company to direct some proceeds toward debt reduction.

Retail IPO market remains difficult

Tailored Brands is also trying to return to Wall Street during an unusual period for consumer companies.

The broader U.S. IPO market has surged in 2026, but retail has largely been left behind.

Only five U.S. consumer and retail IPOs had priced so far this year as of July 22, the lowest year-to-date number in a decade, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.

That could soon change.

Jersey Mike’s and fashion retailer Reformation have both moved forward with IPO plans and together are seeking to raise more than all U.S. consumer and retail IPOs completed so far this year.

Reuters identified Tailored Brands as one of the retailers waiting in the IPO pipeline that could benefit if those offerings perform well.

For Tailored Brands, however, the bigger test goes beyond whether investors are ready for another retail stock.

Six years ago, the company was closing hundreds of stores as demand collapsed.

Now it is asking investors to back the opposite strategy.

A return to public markets, hundreds of additional stores, and a bet that the decline of traditional department stores has left room for a specialty menswear retailer to grow.

Related: 75-year-old giant auto parts company files Chapter 15 protection

The National Futures Association has permanently barred Hardee Brothers LLC and its principal, Sidney Curtis Hardee, after alleging the New York commodity pool operator misled regulators about accepting outside investors, misappropriated nearly $110,000 of customer funds, and used pool assets for personal expenses and investments.

The sanctions follow a settlement with NFA’s Business Conduct Committee in which Hardee Brothers and Hardee neither admitted nor denied the allegations. Under the settlement, the firm must withdraw from NFA membership and may never reapply, while Hardee is permanently barred from becoming an NFA member, associated person or principal of any NFA member.

Although NFA’s announcement summarized the allegations, the underlying complaint provides considerably more detail, describing a $500,000 investment, alleged false regulatory filings spanning several years, customer redemption problems, and a series of transfers that investigators say diverted investor money for Hardee’s personal benefit.

Complaint Began With Investor Seeking Remaining $45,000

The investigation began after NFA received a complaint in January 2026 from an investor identified only as “Customer A.”

According to the complaint, Customer A invested $500,000 in Hardee Capital Pool during late 2021 and requested a full redemption in 2024. She told NFA that while most of her investment had eventually been returned, $45,000 remained outstanding and Hardee had not provided a timeline for repayment. NFA’s review of regulatory filings found that Hardee Brothers had repeatedly represented between 2021 and 2025 that the commodity pool contained only proprietary money belonging to the firm and its principals.

Questionnaires and unaudited pool financial statements filed with NFA consistently stated that the pool had no outside investors. In one filing, Hardee wrote, “The Company did not have any customer funds at any time during 2022. The only investment was that of the Managing Member.” A subsequent filing stated that Sidney Hardee was “the only investor in the entity.”

Because the pool was reported as proprietary, NFA did not require audited financial statements that might otherwise have revealed outside customer participation.

Hardee Initially Denied Knowing Investor

During a January 28, 2026 interview, Hardee allegedly told NFA that Hardee Brothers had operated only one pool and that it had contained no external participants since 2014.

According to the complaint, after investigators informed him of Customer A’s complaint, Hardee said he had never heard of her and had never accepted an investment from anyone by that name.

The following day, however, Hardee allegedly changed his account.

In an email to NFA, he acknowledged that the pool had accepted “friends and family” investors since its inception, including Customer A. He further admitted that previous regulatory reports should have disclosed customer funds and supplied NFA with Customer A’s subscription agreement documenting her $500,000 investment made in November 2021.

Complaint Traces $500,000 Investment

NFA’s complaint reconstructs how Customer A’s investment allegedly moved through Hardee Brothers’ accounts.

According to bank records cited by the regulator, Customer A wired $500,000 into Hardee Brothers’ bank account on November 18, 2021.

Before receiving the wire, the firm’s account reportedly contained only about $1,400.

The complaint alleges that only $360,000 of Customer A’s investment was transferred into the commodity pool.

Another $30,000 was allegedly paid to an individual as a finder’s fee for referring Customer A to Hardee Brothers. Hardee later acknowledged to NFA that the payment represented a referral fee. NFA alleges that bank statements and supporting documents showed Hardee Brothers and Hardee ultimately misappropriated nearly $110,000 of pool assets for Hardee’s benefit.

Money Allegedly Used For Personal Expenses And Investment

The complaint details several transactions that NFA says demonstrate the alleged misuse of investor money.

According to the regulator, after Customer A’s funds arrived, Hardee transferred more than $60,000 directly to himself while another $46,000 was sent to another company he owned to fund efforts to establish an open-ended mutual fund.

Before receiving that transfer, the company’s bank account reportedly held only about $600. Days later, Hardee allegedly used $28,000 from that account for non-pool expenses before transferring another $18,000 connected with acquiring a 5% ownership interest in the mutual fund’s management company.

NFA says Hardee stopped answering investigators’ questions when confronted about those transfers.

Disclosure Document Allegedly Did Not Match Investment Strategy

The complaint also alleges Hardee Brothers solicited Customer A using a disclosure document that NFA had never reviewed or approved.

According to investigators, that disclosure document described speculative trading in commodity futures and options.

However, NFA says it found no evidence the pool ever traded futures contracts. Instead, investigators allege the $360,000 transferred into the pool was invested in a fund-of-funds structure focused primarily on ETFs that ceased operating during March 2023.

Before that investment vehicle closed, Hardee allegedly withdrew more than $275,000 back into the pool’s bank account and periodically used the money to pay personal expenses, including credit card bills and taxes.

NFA Alleges Pool Assets Financed Personal Investment

The complaint also traces another series of transfers during 2023.

NFA alleges Hardee transferred $25,000 from the pool’s brokerage account into the pool’s bank account, then into Hardee Brothers’ account, and finally into his personal checking account, which reportedly held only about $1,325 before the transfer.

Days later, according to the complaint, Hardee wired the same $25,000 to purchase an ownership interest in a New York limited liability company.

NFA concluded in its complaint that Hardee “could not have acquired his ownership interest” without misappropriating pool assets.

Lifetime Ban Ends Hardee Brothers’ NFA Membership

The complaint charged Hardee Brothers and Hardee with cheating, deceiving customers, misappropriating customer funds, providing materially misleading information to NFA, failing to observe high standards of commercial honor, using an unapproved disclosure document and commingling customer assets with firm assets.

Those allegations were resolved through a settlement in which the respondents neither admitted nor denied the claims. Nevertheless, NFA imposed its most severe disciplinary sanction, permanently removing both the firm and its principal from membership in the futures industry’s self-regulatory organization.

The complaint does not indicate that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Securities and Exchange Commission or Department of Justice has brought parallel enforcement or criminal actions based on the same conduct. The NFA disciplinary proceeding currently stands as the only publicly announced regulatory action arising from the allegations.

The Nikkei 225 Index rose modestly as traders bought the recent dip and as the Japanese yen continued declining against the US dollar. It was trading at 66,550, up by 6.30% from its lowest point this month.

Japanese yen and government bonds slip

The Nikkei 225 Index rose a bit as investors reacted to the performance of the Japanese yen and government bonds.

The Japanese yen has slumped to the lowest level in decades as investors predicted that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates later this year.

Odds of a rate hike jumped to 66% on Polymarket as the ongoing US-Iran war pushed crude oil priceshigher. 

At the same time, many market participants predict that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not hike interest rates soon. A poll shows that the bank will delay until December to hike interest rates. This means that the spread between Japan and US rates will continue to widen.

Companies in the Nikkei 225 Index react differently to the deteriorating yen. Big exporters benefit when the yen is falling.

Indeed, data released on Wednesday showed that the country’s exports jumped by 19.3% in June after growing by 16.8% in the previous month. 

This increase was better than the median estimate of 18.6%. Imports jumped by 25.4%, more than double the previous month’s growth.

Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds continued their sell-off. The five-year yield jumped to 1.99%, a few points below the year-to-date high of 2.07%. Ten-year yields rose to 2.756%. 

The recent Nikkei 225 Index rebound has been driven by memory and semiconductor companies.

Kioxia stock jumped to ¥69,400, up by 27% from its lowest level this month. Other memory companies like Samsung and SK Hynix have also jumped recently. 

Softbank stock has risen to ¥5,860, while Tokyo Electron and Advantest have all soared by double digits in the past few weeks.

Looking forward, the Nikkei 225 Index will react to the ongoing US earnings season.

Alphabet reported strong numbers on Wednesday, but its stock dropped as the management hiked its capital expenditure plans.

More US companies like Intel, T-Mobile, RTX, Blackstone, and Union Pacific will publish their numbers.

Japanese companies like Sumitomo Mitsui, Chugai Pharma, and Shin-etsu Chemical will release their numbers this week.

Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis

Ni225 Index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index bottomed at 62,646 on July 17 and then bounced back to the current 66,550.

It has formed a large falling wedge pattern, which is made up of two descending and converging trendlines. 

The index has also remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

This performance is a sign that bulls remain in control.

Therefore, a move above the upper side of the wedge pattern will point to more gains, possibly to the year-to-date high of 72,845. A drop below the key support level of 62,646 will invalidate the bullish forecast.

The post Nikkei 225 Index wavers as Japan bond yields and tech stocks rise appeared first on Invezz

Movie theaters have worn that label since 2020. The industry lost most of its audience during the Covid shutdowns, then lost a chunk of what came back to bigger televisions, shorter waits before a film hits streaming, and a subscription service in nearly every living room.

The standard analysis became a melting ice cube. Attendance drifts a little lower each year, chains close screens to protect margins, and the only real debate is how slowly the decline plays out.

That thesis has always carried one weakness inside it. Theater chains sit on enormous fixed costs, so the same math that punishes them in a weak year flips hard in the other direction the moment enough people actually show up.

Enough people showed up. AMC Entertainment (AMC) reported second-quarter results before the bell on Monday, July 20, and the company cleared a profit mark it had never reached in 106 years of operating.

Why movie-theater economics swing so violently

A theater chain is close to a pure fixed-cost business. Rent, insurance, projection equipment, and a baseline of staffing are all paid for, whether an auditorium holds 12 people or 120.

That is why exhibition looks dire in a weak year and looks like a different industry in a strong one. Every incremental ticket sold after the fixed costs are covered drops almost straight to the bottom line.

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The second quarter put hard numbers on that idea. Operating expense, excluding depreciation and amortization, landed at $458.4 million, matching the prior year to the decimal, while rent moved only from $222.6 million to $223.8 million, according to AMC’s second-quarter earnings release.

Revenue over that same stretch climbed by roughly $199 million.

I have covered enough exhibitor quarters to know that flat costs paired with rising revenue is the only combination that ever repairs a debt-heavy theater chain. Everything else is cosmetic.

What AMC’s record second quarter actually delivered

Total revenues reached $1.597 billion, up 14.2%, and adjusted EBITDA hit $321.4 million, the first time the company has ever cleared $300 million in a single quarter, according to AMC’s earnings release.

Adjusted EBITDA is what is left after stripping out interest, taxes, and the accounting charge for aging assets, which makes it the number lenders watch most closely.

The gap against expectations was not subtle. Adjusted profit arrived at 14 cents per share against forecasts for a loss of 6 cents, with revenue estimates sitting at $1.47 billion, reported Reuters, citing LSEG data.

AMC chairman and chief executive Adam Aron did not undersell it. In 106 years, “never before has AMC had such superb results,” he said in the release.

Here is the AMC’s second-quarter earnings release at a glance:

• Total revenue of $1.597 billion, up from $1.398 billion 
• Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.1%, up from 13.6% a year earlier
• U.S. attendance of 52.5 million patrons, up 12%
• International attendance up 17.9%, with segment adjusted EBITDA of $35.8 million
• Free cash flow of $190.1 million, versus $88.9 million a year ago
• Industry-wide domestic box office of roughly $2.99 billion, up 10.7%

Six separate films opened above $75 million domestically during the quarter, and Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” followed with a reported $124 million debut in July, reported Reuters.

Notably, the average U.S. ticket price actually slipped to $12.70 from $12.77. The record came from volume, not from charging moviegoers more.

Management says that is deliberate. “We can grow our revenue per patron without necessarily increasing price,” chief financial officer Sean Goodman told analysts, according to TheWrap.

More than half of AMC’s U.S. guests during the quarter were Stubs loyalty members, according to The Wrap, which is the payoff.

The per share math behind AMC’s blockbuster numbers

Here is where my analysis parts ways with the celebration.

AMC survived the past six years by selling stock, repeatedly. Diluted weighted average shares outstanding hit 722.0 million in the second quarter, up from 433.1 million a year earlier, according to the earnings release.

That is 66.7% more owners splitting the same pie.

Related: AMC makes bold call that sends its stock crashing

I ran the record adjusted EBITDA figure against that share count, and the result reframes the quarter entirely. Adjusted EBITDA per share worked out to roughly 44.5 cents, against about 43.7 cents in the same quarter last year.

A 69.6% jump in adjusted EBITDA became a 1.7% gain per share.

The debt load absorbs most of the rest. Interest expense of $136 million consumed 57% of the $238.1 million in operating income, and stockholders’ equity remains negative at about $1.45 billion, the earnings release revealed.

Sell-side reaction reflected that split. “While there’s still more work to do here, this was a source of hope,” wrote B. Riley Securities analyst Drew Crumb, according to Deadline.

Others stayed skeptical about the durability of the turn. “Strong quarters, like this one, will happen now and again,” said eMarketer senior analyst Ross Benes, Reuters reported.

What the rest of 2026 decides for AMC investors

The near-term calendar is the bull case. Aron pointed to “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” arriving in two weeks, with “Dune: Part Three” and “Avengers: Doomsday” landing before Christmas.

The balance sheet has bought time to find out whether that slate delivers. AMC pushed its next meaningful debt maturity out to 2029 and expects lower borrowing costs to trim roughly $51 million more from annual interest expense if current conditions hold, the earnings release confirmed.

Analysts have started to move. Texas Capital upgraded the stock to buy and lifted its target to $3 from $2, according to TipRanks.

For anyone holding shares, the question for the second half is narrower than it looks. It is not whether the box office recovers, because the second quarter settled that.

It is whether AMC can go a full 12 months without issuing more stock. Do that, and the fixed-cost math finally works for existing shareholders instead of for the next round of buyers.

Fail, and 2026 becomes one more record the owners of this company never got to keep.

Related: AMC plans free perk for loyal customers amid struggles

China’s largest banks will begin withdrawing individual investors from precious metals trading linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange on Friday, July 24, but the approaching deadline may not be as bearish for gold as it first appears.

The closure removes a channel used by retail traders to take leveraged or synthetic exposure to gold. At the same time, Hong Kong is expanding the ability of retirement funds to invest in gold exchange-traded funds, strengthening links with the Shanghai Gold Exchange and building infrastructure intended to turn the city into an international gold trading and settlement centre.

Taken together, the measures suggest something larger than a crackdown on gold speculation. China and Hong Kong may be changing the composition of regional gold demand, moving away from short-term leveraged trading and towards regulated products supported by pension contributions, physical settlement and institutional capital.

That transition could reduce some speculative activity in the immediate term. Over time, however, replacing leveraged traders with retirement savers could provide gold with a more consistent and less price-sensitive source of demand.

China’s July 24 Gold Trading Deadline

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China will stop providing individual precious metals trading services linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange from July 24. Postal Savings Bank of China, Ping An Bank and China Guangfa Bank have announced similar exits, while other lenders have tightened access or raised margin requirements.

The decision does not ban Chinese residents from owning gold. Investors can continue buying physical bars, jewellery and eligible gold funds. What is disappearing is a bank-distributed route into Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts that allowed individuals to obtain paper exposure and, in some cases, trade using leverage.

China’s banks have been reducing this business for years. Several institutions stopped allowing individuals to open new positions as early as 2022 while permitting existing customers to close trades. The July 24 deadline therefore completes a gradual withdrawal rather than causing every retail position to be liquidated on a single day.

The timing follows considerable volatility in the gold market. Gold fell almost 30% from its 2026 high after approaching $5,600 per ounce earlier in the year, with a stronger US dollar, rising Treasury yields and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts contributing to the decline. Chinese banks responded by raising margin requirements, in some cases to as much as 140%, before announcing the final closures.

FinanceFeeds previously examined what China’s withdrawal from retail paper-gold trading means for gold prices and global markets. With the deadline now days away, the more important question is whether China is reducing gold demand or redirecting it into a different form.

From Leveraged Speculators to Pension Savers

Retail paper-gold traders and retirement investors behave very differently. A leveraged trader may enter and exit positions within hours, increase exposure when prices are rising and sell when margin requirements increase. A pension saver contributes over decades, typically through scheduled payments that continue regardless of short-term market movements.

The distinction matters because the effect of an investment channel depends on more than the total amount of money passing through it. Leveraged trading can generate considerable turnover and volatility without producing an equivalent amount of lasting physical demand. Pension allocations are slower, but they can create recurring purchases and assets that remain invested for years.

Hong Kong is now preparing to make that second form of demand easier. Its Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Authority plans to streamline the approval of gold ETFs, expanding the products available to retirement savers. Hong Kong’s compulsory MPF system covered approximately 4.8 million members and managed HK$1.53 trillion, equivalent to about US$195 billion, at the end of March.

Employees and employers generally contribute 5% of monthly salary to the system, subject to contribution limits. Even a modest allocation from that pool could establish a recurring demand channel that is less dependent on daily prices, trading sentiment or margin availability.

Gold ETF exposure within MPF funds is expected to remain controlled. Proposed safeguards include excluding products that use derivatives and limiting gold exposure to 10% of a fund. Those restrictions make the initiative more closely resemble long-term portfolio diversification than leveraged commodity speculation.

As FinanceFeeds reported earlier this month, the next source of structural gold demand may come from pension funds rather than another change in Federal Reserve policy.

Hong Kong Is Building More Than a Pension Product

The pension changes are part of a wider effort to create a full gold-market ecosystem connecting Hong Kong with mainland China.

On July 7, the Hong Kong Government began trial operations of a new central clearing and settlement system for gold. The programme includes new vaulting capacity, physical delivery arrangements, additional gold ETFs, a Hong Kong gold price reference, potential tax incentives and closer integration with the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

The initial phase of Delivery Connect allows participating institutions to transfer physical gold between Hong Kong’s over-the-counter market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange International Board. The system is intended to connect trading, physical delivery, clearing and storage rather than leaving gold exposure inside purely synthetic investment products.

Hong Kong is also targeting more than 2,000 tonnes of total gold-storage capacity within three years. Three new gold ETFs have been listed since January, bringing the total to six, while HKEX has revived its US-dollar gold futures contract and is exploring an RMB-denominated gold futures product supported by Shanghai Gold Exchange delivery.

This is why the July 24 restriction should not be viewed in isolation. Mainland banks are removing a retail channel associated with leverage and suitability risks while Hong Kong is simultaneously expanding regulated gold products, retirement access, settlement infrastructure and physical-market connectivity.

Could Deleveraging Make the Next Gold Rally Stronger?

Deleveraging does not automatically cause prices to rise. In the immediate term, closing leveraged trading channels can reduce demand, force some positions to be closed and remove traders who previously bought into short-term rallies.

Once that process is complete, however, the market may become less vulnerable to forced selling. Lower leverage means fewer margin calls, fewer liquidations during sudden declines and less speculative positioning that must be unwound when volatility increases.

That can create better conditions for a sustainable rally, but only when underlying demand remains strong. In this case, physical purchases, ETF allocations, central-bank buying and pension flows would need to replace the speculative exposure being removed.

The fact that several banks had already prevented customers from opening new positions reduces the risk of a large one-day liquidation event on July 24. The immediate impact may therefore be smaller than the language of a nationwide “ban” implies.

The larger effect could emerge gradually. If Chinese households move from paper-gold accounts into physical products and if Hong Kong pension funds begin allocating recurring contributions to gold ETFs, the market will lose some high-turnover speculation but gain a source of long-duration capital.

Why the Structural Change Could Be Bullish

A pension-driven gold market would have several characteristics that are supportive of prices over the medium and long term.

First, pension contributions are systematic. Workers and employers continue contributing each month, creating potential inflows that do not depend on investors correctly timing the market.

Second, retirement assets usually have low turnover. Gold purchased through a pension allocation is less likely to return to the market during an ordinary correction than a leveraged position held by a short-term trader.

Third, the development of clearing, vaulting and delivery infrastructure could increase the share of regional gold investment connected to physical metal. Synthetic products may be hedged in the wholesale market, but physical settlement and gold-backed ETFs can have a more direct effect on bullion availability.

Fourth, Hong Kong’s connection with the Shanghai Gold Exchange could make it easier for mainland and international demand to interact. Better settlement, storage and price discovery may attract banks, asset managers, sovereign institutions and global trading firms in addition to retail pension savers.

The bullish argument is therefore not that eliminating leverage causes gold to rise. It is that policymakers appear to be replacing a volatile form of demand with infrastructure capable of supporting recurring, regulated and long-term ownership.

Will Gold Prices Move This Week?

A large price move caused solely by the July 24 deadline appears unlikely. The affected banks had already restricted new positions, and the market has had several weeks to prepare for the closures. Gold’s immediate direction will still depend more heavily on the US dollar, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve expectations, ETF flows and central-bank purchases.

The deadline could nevertheless affect sentiment. Traders may initially interpret the loss of a Chinese retail channel as bearish, particularly if closing activity creates visible selling. Any weakness would need to be compared with Chinese physical premiums, Asian ETF flows and evidence that capital is migrating into alternative gold products.

Investors outside China should also distinguish between a short-term trading event and a long-term allocation shift. Attempting to trade the July 24 deadline as a standalone catalyst carries considerable risk because the immediate flow impact may be limited and already reflected in prices.

The stronger investment thesis concerns what happens after the speculative channel closes. If gold becomes more deeply embedded in Hong Kong’s retirement system while physical-market infrastructure expands between Hong Kong and Shanghai, the resulting demand may be slower than leveraged trading but considerably more durable.

China’s withdrawal from retail paper gold could create temporary pressure or lower turnover. It may also remove a source of forced liquidation before millions of retirement savers gain easier access to regulated gold exposure.

That would not amount to China turning against gold. It would represent a systemic change in who owns it, how they obtain exposure and how long they are likely to hold it.

Joby Aviation is not falling because its aircraft does not work or because certification has stalled. The opposite is true: the Federal Aviation Administration confirmed in late March 2026 that Joby completed Stage 4 of type certification, leaving only Stage 5 — the Type Certificate itself — with issuance estimated for late 2026. The stock closed at $7.66 on July 21, 2026, roughly 63% below its 52-week high of $20.95 and within touching distance of a fresh 52-week low of $6.89. The reason sits in a corporate filing, not a flight test. On June 30, 2026, Joby and Toyota announced a manufacturing alliance in warm, unspecific language. The subsequent filing disclosed the terms: Toyota holds 51% of the joint venture, Joby 49%, and the bulk of Toyota’s capital is conditional on certification and design milestones.

That sequence is the story, and it is the thing most coverage has flattened into “eVTOL sentiment weakness.” Having watched capital-intensive hardware companies finance themselves through strategic partners across automotive and aerospace, the structure here is legible: Toyota has taken control of manufacturing for Joby’s own aircraft while deferring most of its cash until Joby delivers the regulatory milestone. Toyota is buying an option; Joby is holding the risk. The market read the filing correctly and repriced accordingly. Whether that repricing is an overreaction or an accurate assessment is what separates the $13 bull case from the $6.89 bear case — and unusually, the decisive catalyst has a date on it.

Key Facts:

• JOBY closed at $7.66 on July 21, 2026, with a market cap of $7.53 billion and a 52-week range of $6.89–$20.95 — StockAnalysis
• Analyst consensus is Hold across 11 analysts, with an average target of $11.01; HC Wainwright sits at $13.00 and Cantor Fitzgerald at $9.00 — StockAnalysis, July 2026
• Trailing-twelve-month revenue of $77.67 million against a net loss of $957.39 million — a loss 12.3x revenue
• Q1 2026 liquidity of roughly $874.5 million in cash and about $2.47 billion including short-term investments — TIKR
• Q1 2026 free cash flow of approximately -$222 million, implying about 11 quarters of runway on current liquidity
• FAA Stage 4 complete as of late March 2026; only Stage 5 remains, with issuance estimated late 2026 — Aircraft Insider
• Toyota holds 51% of the manufacturing joint venture formed June 29, 2026, with capital tied to certification and design points — TS2

What the Toyota deal actually says, and why the announcement and the filing differ

The June 30, 2026 press release described the initial phase of a strategic manufacturing alliance to produce Joby’s S4 Series aircraft. It did not disclose the ownership split. It did not detail the conditions attached to Toyota’s capital.

“Toyota has been by Joby’s side for nearly a decade, providing invaluable guidance and support as we built the foundation for manufacturing our aircraft,” said JoeBen Bevirt, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Joby Aviation. “Today’s announcement reflects the strength of our relationship and our shared confidence in the opportunity ahead.”

Akio Toyoda, Chairman of Toyota Motor Corporation, framed it in strategic terms: “We see air mobility as a natural extension of that philosophy — from the ground into the sky — and as a way to bring new value to people’s lives and to society.”

Shares rose on that announcement. They fell once the filing landed. The Delaware entity, Joby Toyota Aero Manufacturing Preparation Company, was formed on June 29, 2026 with Toyota at 51% and Joby at 49%, and the material capital commitments were tied to certification and design checkpoints rather than paid up front.

Both readings can be true simultaneously. Toyota’s involvement is genuine validation — a decade-long relationship and a $500 million prior commitment are not window dressing. But a 51% partner whose money arrives on milestone delivery is structurally a de-risked investor, and Joby has traded manufacturing control for capital it has not yet received. For a company burning roughly $222 million per quarter in free cash flow, when the money arrives matters as much as whether it does.

Certification is nearly finished — and that is the part nobody is paying for

Joby has completed four of five FAA type certification stages. Stage 5 requires the company to finish remaining “for-credit” flight testing with FAA test pilots at the controls, demonstrate compliance with outstanding airworthiness standards, and receive the final administrative determination. The FAA has been explicit that timing depends on applicant performance and the resolution of open compliance findings.

That is as close to a dated, binary catalyst as a pre-revenue hardware company gets. A first-ever commercial eVTOL type certificate would be an industry-defining regulatory event, and Joby is the closest applicant to it.

The market is not paying for that position. Consider what happened during the same July window. Joby appeared at the Farnborough International Airshow and made new 52-week lows. Archer Aviation, its closest US competitor, rose sharply on a defence partnership reveal at the same event. Yet on the fundamentals, Joby carries roughly $77.67 million in trailing-twelve-month revenue against Archer’s far smaller revenue base, as set out in our analysis of Archer’s $18 bull case versus $4.28 bear case.

The inference is uncomfortable but supported: in July 2026, the eVTOL market paid for defence narrative and discounted civil certification progress. That is a sentiment regime, not a fundamental judgement, and sentiment regimes reverse on events. Stage 5 is an event.

Retail positioning reflects the malaise rather than disputing it. The dedicated communities — r/Joby, r/JOBYinvestors and, tellingly, r/JobyvsArcher — spent July on threads titled “When will JOBY stock finally take off?” and “Joby Insider Selling Continues Amid New 52-Week Lows.” A separate thread noted the chief executive selling $140,828 of stock, disclosed as tax-related. That is not a scandal; it is a sentiment marker, and it arrived at exactly the wrong moment in the chart.

The burn, the runway, and the number that decides everything

Joby’s financial position is stronger than the share price implies, and the arithmetic is worth doing explicitly rather than accepting “well-funded” as a claim.

Q1 2026 left roughly $874.5 million in cash and about $2.47 billion including short-term investments, built on a $600 million equity offering and a $690 million convertible note issuance. Free cash flow ran at approximately -$222 million for the quarter. Dividing liquidity by that burn gives roughly 11 quarters — close to three years, extending past the point at which a type certificate should either exist or be definitively delayed.

The loss ratio is the other side of it. Trailing revenue of $77.67 million against a net loss of $957.39 million is a loss 12.3 times revenue. Revenue growth of nearly 70,000% year on year is a function of a near-zero base and should be ignored as a signal; the absolute figures are what matter.

Sources: StockAnalysis (price, market cap, revenue, loss, share count, beta) as of July 21, 2026; Q1 2026 liquidity and cash-flow figures via TIKR.

With approximately $2.47 billion in liquidity against a $7.53 billion market capitalisation, roughly a third of the company’s value is cash and investments. That does not make the equity cheap — the operating business still loses close to a billion dollars a year — but it does mean the bear case cannot rest on imminent insolvency. It has to rest on certification slipping or on dilution.

Regulatory dependency runs deeper than the certificate

A type certificate authorises the aircraft. It does not by itself create a commercial air taxi business, and this is where the regulatory tension actually sits.

Joby needs three separate approvals stacked on top of each other: the type certificate for the aircraft, a production certificate permitting manufacture at rate, and Part 135 air carrier authority to operate commercial passenger service. Each is a distinct FAA process on its own timeline. The Toyota joint venture speaks directly to the second — its stated purpose includes expanding production capacity for certification — which is precisely why Toyota’s capital being milestone-linked creates a circularity worth naming: production scale-up support is conditional on certification progress, while commercial launch requires production scale.

Infrastructure is the fourth constraint and the least discussed. Vertiport availability, air traffic integration for high-density low-altitude operations, and municipal noise and siting rules are set by aviation authorities and local governments rather than by the FAA alone. None of these blocks a type certificate. All of them gate the revenue that a type certificate is supposed to unlock.

The FAA’s own framing on Stage 5 is instructive — timing depends on applicant performance and resolution of open compliance findings, which is regulator language for “we will not commit to a date.” Investors modelling a clean late-2026 certificate and a fast commercial ramp are modelling the optimistic branch of a process the regulator has deliberately declined to schedule.

Bull case $13 versus bear case $6.89: what has to be true

The $13.00 target implies roughly 70% upside from $7.66 and requires the certificate on schedule plus visible Toyota funding. The $9.00 Cantor Fitzgerald target — still 17% above the current price — is arguably the more instructive number, because it represents the cautious sell-side view and it sits above spot. Every published target in the range exceeds the market price, which means the analyst community and the tape currently disagree.

The $6.89 bear case does not require failure. It requires only that Stage 5 slips a quarter or two while the burn continues and the Toyota capital stays behind its milestones. In that scenario the stock retests the low without anything fundamental breaking — which is exactly how the last 63% of decline happened.

What happens next

First: the August 5, 2026 earnings report is the near-term event, not the certificate. Watch two disclosures specifically — whether any Toyota joint-venture capital has been received rather than committed, and whether Q2 free cash flow held near the -$222 million Q1 level. A widening burn shortens the runway arithmetic materially and makes a raise before certification more likely.

Second: expect the type certificate to slip rather than arrive early. The FAA has declined to commit to a date and has explicitly conditioned timing on open compliance findings. Base rates for first-in-category certifications favour delay. A slip is not a thesis-breaker on its own, but a slip combined with an equity raise would be, because it puts issuance into a depressed tape against a near-billion share count.

Third: the Joby-Archer sentiment gap narrows on the certificate, not before. Archer’s July strength came from a defence narrative; Joby’s weakness came from a filing. Those are different drivers, and only a regulatory event resets the comparison. For the adjacent pattern of capital-structure repricing driving a high-conviction hardware story, see our analysis of AST SpaceMobile’s $108 bull case versus $41 bear case, where descending convertible strikes played the role Toyota’s conditional capital plays here, and our Rocket Lab price prediction for how launch and aerospace names reprice on execution milestones.

FAQ

What is the Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock price target?
Analyst consensus across 11 analysts is Hold with an average 12-month target of $11.01, roughly 44% above the July 21, 2026 close of $7.66. HC Wainwright is highest at $13.00 and Cantor Fitzgerald lowest at $9.00 — notably, every published target sits above the current market price.

Why is JOBY stock near its 52-week low?
Shares rose on the June 30, 2026 Toyota alliance announcement, then fell once the filing disclosed the terms: Toyota holds 51% of the manufacturing joint venture and most of its capital is conditional on certification and design milestones. The stock trades around $7.66 against a 52-week low of $6.89.

How close is Joby to FAA certification?
Joby completed Stage 4 of five in late March 2026. Stage 5 requires remaining for-credit flight testing with FAA pilots at the controls, compliance with outstanding airworthiness standards, and final administrative determination. Issuance is estimated for late 2026, though the FAA has not committed to a date.

How much cash does Joby Aviation have?
Roughly $874.5 million in cash and about $2.47 billion including short-term investments as of Q1 2026, funded partly by a $600 million equity offering and a $690 million convertible note issuance. Against approximately -$222 million quarterly free cash flow, that implies about 11 quarters of runway.

Is Joby or Archer the better positioned eVTOL company?
They diverged in July 2026 for different reasons. Archer rallied on a defence partnership; Joby fell on joint-venture terms despite being further along in civil certification and carrying $77.67 million in trailing revenue. The comparison likely resets on whichever secures a type certificate first.

What would invalidate the bull case?
FAA Stage 5 slipping into 2027, combined with an equity raise at depressed prices against 983.64 million shares outstanding. Either alone is survivable given the runway; together they would reset the timeline and dilute holders at the low.

This article is informational analysis only and is not investment advice. Equity markets are volatile and past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making any investment decision.

Bitcoin price rose and crossed the important resistance level of $65,000 as ETF inflows accelerated and as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index exited the fear zone.

BTC was trading at $66,267 on Wednesday, up by nearly 15% from the lowest level this year. 

Bitcoin ETF inflows are soaring

American investors continued buying Bitcoin ETFs this week, a sign that many of them are betting on a comeback.

Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs added $203 million in inflows on Tuesday, the sixth consecutive day of inflows. 

These funds have now added over $928 million in the last six days. They have added over $628 million in assets this month.

If this trend continues, the net inflows this month will be over $1 billion. This will be a good turnaround for assets that lost over $4.5 billion last month and $2.4 billion a month earlier.

Investors have also bought other altcoin ETFs. Ethereum ETFs added over $37 million in assets on Tuesday, bringing the monthly increase to $309 million.

XRP and Solana ETFs have gained $12.3 million and $13 million, respectively, this month. 

A likely reason why investors are piling back into Bitcoin is that they are buying the dip.

At its lowest level this year, Bitcoin was down by 55% from its peak in October last year.

As such, some investors believe that it has become highly oversold and that it will bounce back.

Some popular analysts have made their bullish forecasts recently.

Standard Chartered believes that the coin will jump to $100,000, while Bernstein has placed a target of $150,000, representing a big jump from the current level.

Crypto Fear and Greed index has jumped 

Bitcoin has steadied as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has jumped from an extreme fear area to a neutral level.

The index jumped from 17 to the neutral level of 40.

This is an important gauge that looks at several metrics, including the price momentum of the top ten coins, Volmex Implied Volatility Indices (BVIV), put/call ratio in the BTC and ETH markets, and social media activity. 

The index is widely used as a measure of market sentiment, with extreme fear often coinciding with periods of heavy selling and extreme greed accompanying strong rallies.

Historically, extreme fear has often coincided with periods that later proved to be market bottoms, although the relationship is not consistent.

It then starts to drop when the index moves to either the greed or extreme greed zone.

Bitcoin has also done well, as Michael Saylor’s Strategy has avoided selling its coins.

After selling coins worth over $200 million earlier this month, the company has avoided making more sales.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

BTC price chart | Source: TradingView

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC price has drifted upwards in the past few weeks and is now hovering near its highest level since June 16. It has formed an ascending channel and is now near its upper side. 

Bitcoin has moved slightly above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

It has also formed an inverted head-and-shoulders-like pattern, which normally leads to more gains. 

Recently, however, there have been signs that the rebound is losing momentum.

More gains will be confirmed if it rises above the upper side of the channel.

If this happens, the next level to watch will be the psychological point of $70,000.

The post Bitcoin price prediction as ETF inflows, Crypto Fear and Greed index jumps appeared first on Invezz

I’d stock up on bulk groceries, grab a few household essentials, and somehow leave with far more snacks than I ever intended to buy.

Over time, though, Costco became much more than a place to buy giant jars of peanut butter and paper towels.

I’ve purchased tires, used Costco for home services, booked travel, and increasingly relied on its pharmacy. 

That’s part of a larger shift happening across the retailer as Costco continues turning its membership into something that delivers value well beyond the warehouse shelves.

The company’s latest earnings show that strategy is paying off — especially in its pharmacy business, where Costco is expanding services while giving members more ways to save on prescription medications.

Costco’s pharmacy business keeps adding value

During Costco’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call, CFO Gary Millerchip highlighted pharmacy as one of the company’s strongest-performing ancillary businesses.

“Pharmacy led the way and saw significant market share gains in the quarter,” Millerchip said.

Related: Costco makes surprising change that may hurt its bottom line

He added that several factors are driving that momentum.

“These include increased GLP-1 demand, and inclusion of Wegovy and Ozempic in our Member Prescription Program, great value on pet medications, acceptance of Medicare D over-the-counter flex cards, and expansion of our mail order and specialty pharmacy offerings,” Millerchip said.

Each of those initiatives addresses a growing consumer need.

Demand for GLP-1 medications continues to climb, with the percentage of U.S. adults who currently take GLP-1 medications for weight loss rising from 3% in 2024 to 11% in 2026, according to Gallup.

Mail order pharmacy services have also become increasingly popular among consumers looking for convenience and automatic refills. 

A 2025 JD Power survey found that customers were more satisfied with mail order pharmacy services than in-store service, Pharmacy Times reported.

For pet owners, meanwhile, Costco’s pharmacy is often another overlooked benefit. Many common pet medications are available at prices that often compare favorably with veterinary offices, creating another opportunity for members to save.

A focus on pharmacy makes sense for Costco and its members

Costco’s push for expanded pharmacy services is a smart play because prescription medications generate recurring visits. 

Customers filling monthly prescriptions are more likely to stop by the warehouse regularly, where many inevitably purchase additional items during the same trip.

More Retail:

• Costco sees major shift in member behavior
• Retail chain shuts all locations as legal changes hit industry
• Costco makes major investment in online shopping for members

Mail order pharmacy expands that relationship even further by keeping Costco connected with members, even when they don’t visit a warehouse.

From a business perspective, health care also fits naturally into Costco’s membership model. 

The company doesn’t have to maximize profits on every prescription. Instead, offering competitive pricing and convenient services helps strengthen the overall value of a membership, increasing the likelihood that customers renew year after year.

Given that membership fee income totaled $1.37 billion during Costco’s most recent quarter, that right there is a win.

And for members, the benefits are straightforward. 

Whether it’s access to popular GLP-1 medications, lower-cost pet medications, Medicare Part D over-the-counter flex card acceptance, or expanded mail-order and specialty pharmacy services, the warehouse club is making health care more convenient while potentially lowering out-of-pocket costs.

That’s a win for shoppers looking to stretch their health care dollars, and it’s also smart business for Costco. 

Every additional service that saves members time or money makes the annual membership feel more valuable. 

In an increasingly competitive retail environment, that’s exactly the kind of advantage that helps Costco keep customers loyal long after they’ve filled their shopping carts.

Maurie Backman owns shares of Costco.

Related: Costco makes big investment to keep members coming back

The Derivatives Service Bureau has postponed any immediate overhaul of its user fee structure after industry feedback, opting instead for a broader review of how the costs of maintaining the global OTC derivatives identifier system should be shared. The move comes despite the DSB revealing that roughly three quarters of organisations using its data currently do so free of charge, raising questions over the long-term sustainability and fairness of its cost recovery model. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}

The conclusions are contained in the DSB’s 2026 Final Report relating to its 2027 OTC ISIN, UPI and CFI service provisions, published following the annual industry consultation. Rather than introducing significant pricing changes for next year, the organisation will spend the coming months conducting a discovery-led review of how firms consume, redistribute and commercialise its data before proposing a more comprehensive redesign of the user model. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}

The consultation marks an important shift for the DSB. Following the successful implementation of the Unique Product Identifier and the launch of its Classification of Financial Instruments service, the organisation said its focus is moving away from building new infrastructure and towards understanding how market participants use the data throughout the derivatives ecosystem. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}

75% Of Users Access DSB Data For Free

One of the biggest issues identified by the consultation is the imbalance between paying and non-paying users.

The DSB said approximately 75% of organisations currently consume DSB data without contributing to the cost of operating the service. While open access remains one of the bureau’s founding principles, it is also required to operate on a cost recovery basis, prompting an ongoing debate over whether the existing fee model fairly reflects the value different users derive from the data. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3} :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}

Earlier proposals considered introducing a new Full File Download user category while restricting certain free data downloads. However, feedback from market participants was mixed, with respondents warning that the changes could create operational complexity, disadvantage smaller firms and have unintended consequences for distributors and technology providers. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5} :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}

Instead, respondents unanimously supported undertaking a broader review of the entire user model before implementing individual changes. :contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}

Distributor Fees Headed For Tiered Model

Although broader pricing reforms have been delayed, the DSB confirmed that work will continue on redesigning fees for distributors that redistribute DSB data to downstream users.

A Distributor user type was introduced in January 2026 with flat annual fees of €20,000 for the UPI service and €15,000 for the OTC ISIN service. The latest consultation found broad support for evolving that model into a tiered structure based primarily on the number of downstream users served by each distributor. :contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8} :contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}

The DSB also plans to broaden the definition of Distributor to include firms providing derived data, validation services and display functionality, while improving quarterly reporting requirements to better understand how DSB data flows through the market. The organisation said additional industry engagement will take place before any tiered pricing model is finalised. :contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10} :contentReference[oaicite:11]{index=11}

Penalty Plan Scrapped In Favour Of Technical Improvements

The report also confirms that the DSB has abandoned an earlier proposal to introduce financial penalties for firms repeatedly breaching its Acceptable Usage Policy.

Instead, respondents overwhelmingly supported a package of technical improvements aimed at reducing accidental breaches. These include clearer error messages, encouraging firms to validate data before submission and changing how certain invalid messages are counted within usage limits. Implementation is planned for 2027 at a one-off cost of €63,000, split between the UPI and OTC ISIN services. :contentReference[oaicite:12]{index=12} :contentReference[oaicite:13]{index=13} :contentReference[oaicite:14]{index=14}

Respondents also urged the DSB to reserve any future financial penalties for deliberate or persistent misuse rather than genuine data-quality errors. :contentReference[oaicite:15]{index=15}

Alternative Identifier Costs Under Review

Another notable finding concerns the DSB’s Alternative Identifier functionality, which allows users to reference instruments using identifiers such as CUSIP, FIGI and SEDOL alongside ISINs.

The DSB revealed that use of the feature has fallen by more than 50% year over year, with only 21 organisations actively using it during 2025 despite annual third-party data costs of roughly €506,000. Respondents broadly agreed that the DSB should review whether those costs should continue to be shared across all UPI users or instead be borne by the relatively small group of firms that actually use the functionality. :contentReference[oaicite:16]{index=16}

Discovery-Led Approach Signals Longer-Term Reform

Perhaps the most significant outcome of this year’s consultation is procedural rather than commercial.

The DSB said it is entering a “discovery-led” phase of engagement, with plans to conduct bilateral discussions with firms across different regions, business models and user types before bringing forward future proposals. The organisation believes a deeper understanding of downstream workflows, redistribution models and commercial usage patterns will enable it to design a simpler and fairer cost recovery framework. :contentReference[oaicite:17]{index=17} :contentReference[oaicite:18]{index=18} :contentReference[oaicite:19]{index=19}

For derivatives infrastructure providers, brokers, exchanges and market data vendors, the report suggests that no immediate pricing shock is coming in 2027. However, the DSB has made clear that broader reforms remain firmly on the agenda, particularly around distributor fees, downstream redistribution and ensuring that firms deriving commercial value from DSB data contribute proportionately to the cost of maintaining the industry’s global identifier infrastructure. :contentReference[oaicite:20]{index=20} :contentReference[oaicite:21]{index=21}

A suspected exploit involving Wanchain’s Cardano bridge reportedly removed approximately 515 million NIGHT tokens from an address used to secure bridged assets, triggering heavy selling and a sharp decline in the Midnight ecosystem token.

The tokens were withdrawn on July 21, 2026, from Wanchain’s Cardano-side bridge lock address, according to public onchain analysis. That address held native NIGHT as collateral for Wanchain-wrapped NIGHT circulating on BNB Chain.

At a market price near $0.0175, the affected balance had a notional value of roughly $9 million. The value is approximate because NIGHT’s price fell rapidly during the incident, and there is not yet evidence that the entire 515 million-token balance was sold at a single price.

The Midnight Foundation acknowledged reports concerning the Wanchain Cardano-to-BNB bridge and said an investigation was underway. Its preliminary assessment indicated that the incident affected bridged NIGHT and was isolated from the Midnight network itself.

Neither Wanchain nor Midnight had published a complete forensic report at the time of writing. The precise attack method, the identity of the responsible party and the amount ultimately recoverable therefore remain unconfirmed.

Bridge Collateral Movement Triggers Market Sell-Off

Cross-chain bridges commonly work by locking a native asset on one blockchain and issuing an equivalent wrapped token on another. The wrapped asset retains its value only while the original collateral remains securely held and redeemable.

Removing NIGHT from Wanchain’s Cardano lock address potentially leaves wrapped NIGHT on BNB Chain without complete backing. That does not necessarily mean every wrapped token is worthless, but it creates uncertainty over whether holders can redeem their assets at the expected one-to-one ratio.

Large quantities of NIGHT were subsequently sold through Cardano-based decentralized exchanges, according to onchain observers. NIGHT fell by approximately one-third over 24 hours and traded as low as about $0.0152, while daily turnover climbed sharply as traders reacted to the apparent increase in available supply.

The reported 515 million tokens represent roughly 3.1% of NIGHT’s circulating supply of approximately 16.6 billion tokens and about 2.15% of its stated 24 billion total supply. A balance of that scale can create substantial price pressure when moved into markets with comparatively limited liquidity.

Midnight Network Says Core Protocol Was Not Compromised

The distinction between the bridge and the underlying Midnight protocol is important. Current evidence does not indicate that Midnight’s consensus mechanism, native token issuance rules or broader network infrastructure were breached. The suspected failure appears to involve external interoperability infrastructure operated by Wanchain.

Wanchain describes WanBridge as a non-custodial system connecting EVM and non-EVM blockchains. Before the incident, the project had promoted an operating history of more than eight years without an exploit and highlighted substantial NIGHT transfers between Cardano and BNB Chain.

The event nevertheless reinforces the security risks created when native assets are represented across multiple networks. Even where the original blockchain remains secure, weaknesses in bridge custody, validator controls or transaction verification can expose large collateral pools.

The immediate priorities are identifying the vulnerability, tracing the withdrawn tokens and determining whether wrapped NIGHT remains fully redeemable. Any recovery plan may also require coordination with exchanges, decentralized trading venues and blockchain analytics firms.

Until Wanchain provides a detailed accounting, the 515 million NIGHT figure should be treated as a reported bridge drain rather than a final confirmed loss.