This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook. 

Highlights of the week: FOMC minutes, US GDP, PCE & inflation

Wednesday

  • FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT, where investors and traders will be paying close attention to any hints from the Federal Reserve in terms of future developments on the monetary policy. Currently, the possibility of a rate cut is shifting, as the majority now believes we will not have another rate cut this year. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probabilities are 99% in favor of a hold and 1% in favor of a rate cut in the April meeting on the 29th.

Thursday

  •  U.S core PCE at 12:30 PM GMT. The market is expecting this figure to remain stable at 0.4% month over month for February, but any surprise at the time of publication would most likely create volatility across most dollar pairs.
  • US GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to decline to 0.7% against the previous figure of 4.4%. If these expectations are met, it might lead to minor losses for the Dollar while supporting many of its instruments traded against it. 

Friday

  • Chinese inflation rate at 01:30 AM GMT. The market consensus is for a further decline in the figure, going from 1.3% to 1% for March. 
  • Canadian unemployment rate at 12:30 GMT. The market is expecting a slight increase of around 0.1% in the figure for March. This might have a minor negative effect on the loonie if the expectations are confirmed.
  • The US Inflation rate at 12:30 GMT, with the consensus pointing to an increase of around 1% to 3.4% in March. If this is broadly accurate, it might not influence the Federal Reserve’s stance at its next meeting, where, for now, the probability is that it will keep rates stable. On the other hand, if there is any significant surprise change in the actual figure, then it will respectively affect the dollar in the short term. 

USOIL, daily

Oil is moving unpredictably because the market is trying to balance three things at once: the possibility of a ceasefire, actual supply disruption, and constant political noise.

There are ongoing talks between the US, Iran, and regional mediators about a potential 45-day pause that could lead to a broader resolution, but nothing looks imminent. At the same time, Trump has escalated tensions by threatening strikes on Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened, setting deadlines that may or may not be enforced. Iran has rejected those demands and is still largely restricting traffic through the strait.

The supply shock is the core issue now, with the near-closure of Hormuz having significantly disrupted global oil flows, pushing prices higher and adding pressure on inflation and economic growth. Saudi Arabia is taking advantage of this environment by raising its key export prices to Asia to record levels, reflecting how tight the market has become.

At the same time, the market structure shows clear signs of stress, with spot prices surging and backwardation widening, suggesting traders are focused on immediate supply shortages rather than longer-term demand.OPEC+ has signaled it’s ready to increase output, but that doesn’t solve the problem quickly because the bottleneck is geopolitical, not production capacity.

 On the technical side, the price is respecting the upper band of the Bollinger Bands after finding sufficient resistance at market open. Currently, it’s testing the support of the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement level while the Stochastic oscillator is showing extreme overbought conditions. The moving averages are confirming the overall bullish trend in the market, while the Bollinger Bands are rather contracted. These indicators, combined, show that volatility is slowing at a point where we have an overbought oscillator and strong technical support. Therefore, the short-term outlook for oil appears to be entering a consolidation phase, given that there will be no major geopolitical developments this week.   

Gold-dollar, daily

Gold bounced back slightly after an earlier drop as headlines about a potential ceasefire between the US, Iran, and regional mediators gave the market some relief. Still, nothing is close to being finalized, so the support from that angle is weak.

At the same time, Trump is keeping tensions elevated with renewed threats if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened. That geopolitical risk would normally support gold, but the market isn’t fully buying into it because of what’s happening on the macro side.

That’s where the real pressure is coming from. Strong US jobs data is cooling expectations of rate cuts, which is a headwind for gold since it doesn’t yield any income. On top of that, higher oil and gasoline prices are pushing inflation expectations higher, reinforcing the idea that rates will stay elevated for longer. Overall, gold is stuck in a tug-of-war. Geopolitical risk is providing some support, but higher rates and inflation expectations are capping any upside and keeping broader pressure intact.

From a technical point of view, gold has found sufficient resistance around $4,800, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day simple moving average. Even with a bearish candlestick at the end of last week, the Stochastic oscillator is still near overbought territory, hinting that there might be room for further bearish candles to form, and with expanded Bollinger Bands, there is also the volatility to support such a correction. The 50-day simple moving average is still above the 100-day, despite the selloff since the beginning of March, validating the longer-term bullish trend.  For the time being, the $4,800 level is a major resistance and also the 50% Fibonacci retracement. On the other hand, the areas of $4,600 and $4,400 are the major support areas, which consist of the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively. 

Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness or Finance Feeds.