A high level delegation of Japanese politicians arrived in Beijing this week, sparking speculation that Tokyo is attempting to mend fences with China following one of the most severe diplomatic breakdowns since the 1970s. The group includes representatives from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, as well as members of the opposition Komeito and Centrist Reform Alliance. This sudden outreach follows months of escalating tension that began when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s own survival and justify a military response.

The fallout from those comments was swift and visceral. Relations plummeted after a Chinese consul general in Osaka posted a provocative message suggesting China would cut off the dirty neck of anyone lunging at them, referring to Takaichi. While the post was eventually deleted, the damage was done. Beijing responded by tightening trade restrictions, issuing travel warnings to discourage Chinese tourists from visiting Japan, and imposing bans on Japanese seafood. More critically, China targeted Japan’s tech sector by restricting exports of dual use goods and rare earth minerals essential for everything from smartphones to fighter jets.

These current frictions are deeply rooted in a long history of conflict stretching back to the late 19th century, including Japan’s seizure of Taiwan in 1895 and its brutal occupation of Manchuria and mainland China during World War II. Because of this legacy, analysts suggest that Beijing views any mention of Japanese military force through the lens of wartime militarism. Former diplomat Shinichi Isa notes that while communication usually persists even during low points, almost every official channel between ministries has recently gone silent, marking a historic nadir in bilateral ties.

While Japan has managed to mitigate some losses in its tourism sector thanks to a weak yen attracting other international travelers, the economic pressure from resource shortages is becoming harder to ignore. With China supplying roughly eighty percent of Japan’s rare earth imports, shipments of critical elements like dysprosium have vanished over several months. Major automotive giants such as Nissan and Suzuki are already reporting supply chain disruptions. As Beijing urges Tokyo to take concrete action toward normalization, it appears Japan may find itself needing its neighbor more than it is willing to publicly admit.