Nike’s (NKE) Jordan brand is gaining ground among sneaker resellers, offering an “encouraging” signal for a business still struggling to regain its footing.

Citi’s tracking showed Nike captured 72.3% of resale volume in September, a 63bps increase from August, with Jordan driving most of the improvement.

That also exceeded the 70.8% average recorded between June and August.

Still, investors should resist treating stronger resale share as proof of a financial recovery. For NKE stock, these latest figures support cautious optimism about brand appeal rather than an immediate buying case.

What Jordan’s resale volume means for Nike stock

The most important distinction is between resale market share and actual sales growth.

Nike could capture a larger portion of secondary-market transactions even if the overall market contracts.

Citi’s reported figures alone therefore cannot establish whether more Nike sneakers changed hands in September, whether resale prices strengthened, or whether sellers earned better returns.

Those details matter since frequent trading doesn’t necessarily showcase stronger pricing power.

A coveted shoe commanding a premium tells investors something different from an oversupplied model changing hands at a discount.

September’s share also remained 4.7 percentage points below the 77.0% peak recorded in October 2023.

The improvement deserves attention, but it falls short of demonstrating that NKE has restored its former secondary-market dominance.

In short, resale transactions themselves don’t really establish an increase in the firm’s reported revenue.

Nike is deliberately accepting pain at Jordan

There is nevertheless a credible bullish interpretation – Jordan retains “consumer relevance” while Nike works to repair its distribution strategy.

On its latest earnings call, management acknowledged oversupplying iconic Jordan retro products and outlined plans to reduce the volume and frequency of selected launches.

Jordan represented 13% of NKE’s global business in Q1, while its sales declined in the mid-teens.

The investment logic is that tighter supply may eventually restore exclusivity, reduce the need for discounts, and improve the economics of future releases.

However, September’s resale share does not prove that this strategy is already succeeding.

Plus, Nike also faces a difficult trade-off: selling fewer pairs can protect a franchise’s desirability while hurting near-term revenue.

Investors buying the turnaround must accept that healthier brand positioning and faster sales growth may arrive on different schedules.

NKE shares need a strong earnings case

All in all, there’s reason to remain cautious on NKE shares; Jordan’s resale improvement is insufficient reason to load up on them today.

There sure are encouraging operating signs. Nike’s performance portfolio grew at a high-single-digit rate in the first quarter, while gross margin expanded 60 basis points to 42.8%.

Yet management still projected a high-single-digit revenue decline for fiscal 2027 – underscoring how heavily the weaker businesses weigh on the recovery.

For shareholders, the decisive issue is how much “sustainable profit” Nike Inc can generate while resetting Jordan, Sportswear and Greater China; and a resale-share gain offers rather limited help in answering that valuation question.

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